December 16, 2003 

“A Hopeful Day Has Arrived”

By Richard Reitano

            The news that Saddam Hussein was captured on Saturday night by elements of the Army’s 4^th Infantry Division is certainly welcome, particularly if the event results in decreased attacks on American forces and Iraqi civilians, and if the transition to Iraqi home rule proceeds on schedule.  As President Bush observed, the Iraqi people must also try Hussein at an appropriate time and place for his various crimes against them during the thirty years that he ruled the country. 

            The Bush administration in announcing the news of Hussein’s capture is apparently resisting another “Top Gun”-style “photo op” as well it should.  The last thing we need is another “Mission Accomplished” theatrical production because the dangers to our military personnel are still clear and present, and Iraq is still a dangerous and non-functioning society.    In our euphoria over Hussein’s capture, then, we must not forget that there is still an active guerrilla insurgency.  In short, young Americans continue to die every day in Iraq, many more young Americans continue to sustain life-altering injuries, and the cost of the war and its impact on the American treasury and our national budgetary priorities are still extreme.  

Mr. Bush in his brief remarks on Sunday afternoon noted that the violence will not “end” because Hussein is now in U.S. custody.  In fact, the so-called opposition groups in Iraq, really cells of opposition, more than likely operate independently of a central control authority, and they may now be emboldened to increase the number and intensity of attacks because of Hussein’s capture.  In addition, the history of this region is replete with examples of American “successes” being met with more violence, and peace and stability becoming more and more illusive. 

The other danger is that we will forget that this war was waged because of Hussein’s alleged acquisition of weapons of mass destruction and his alleged ties to the terrorists responsible for the horrific events of September 11.  As we discovered, no weapons were found, and as Mr. Bush has noted, we have “no evidence that Saddam Hussein was involved with the 11 September attacks.”  Americans have a short attention span and nothing succeeds like success.  Winning this war was never in doubt, but its dubious rationale and the disastrous post-war reconstruction should not be forgotten because a despicable thug is no longer around to terrorize his own people.   

The other concern is that the hard line advisors who control American foreign policy will now conclude that the Bush Doctrine based on pre-emption with its implicit rejection of multilateral institutions and allies has been validated.  If anything, this war has demonstrated that the UN and our allies are essential, that we cannot do everything by ourselves, and that long-term global peace and stability cannot be maintained by American military might alone. 

This event is, indeed, a “hopeful day,” but we will have to stay the course in Iraq in order to assist in the creation of a democratic society, perhaps even one that we may not like very much. 

December 15, 2003

Valley Views: Leader's capture may stymie insurgents

By Joel Diemond

Saddam Hussein was the worst of the living dictators at the end of the 20th century. His record of rape, torture, murder, theft, genocide, aggression, terror, war crimes and national destruction was far worse than most of us can even begin to understand. His regime's legacy for Iraq is one of fear, hatred and economic disaster. Consequently, his capture in humiliating circumstances is a major achievement for the American-led coalition and for the Iraqi people.

It matters for the future of Iraq that in his capture he was less brave than his own sons and grandson who died rather than surrender. He is now available for interrogation and this means the insurgent forces fighting a guerrilla war against the occupation will not know how much the captured dictator is telling the interrogators. There will be a brief, unique opportunity to undermine the leadership and organization of the insurgency because fence-sitting Iraqis now know the former regime cannot be reconstituted. If the American forces are prepared to take full advantage of the potential for action, there should be a flood of actionable intelligence for the next several weeks.

It matters that he is still alive and apparently healthy because a trial may be essential for Iraq's future well being. We forget that the Iraqi people have lived for decades in a society where his crimes were known only in general, because to speak of them in detail meant one's death by torture. Oftentimes the circle of death would extend to whole families.

A brutal reign

Saddam ruled by a combination of fear and secrecy. An extended televised trial, which detailed his many crimes against humanity, might force Iraqis and others in the Arab world to acknowledge how horrible Saddam's regime was. Such a trial might make it impossible for his former supporters to ever regain a significant role in Iraqi life.

It is especially fortunate for the American effort in Iraq that Saddam's capture occurred now. The insurgency was becoming more effective and better organized; it was beginning to target Iraqis who were trying to rebuild a new nation. American tactics were also becoming more aggressive and better organized.

For those familiar with the detailed history of the Vietnam War, there were at least a few eerie parallels. In particular, we were beginning to rehire members of Saddam's secret police to help find the insurgents; we were beginning to have disputes over body counts; and we were organizing special operations forces under the direction of a Defense Department assistant secretary who had been involved in the Phoenix Program, the largest assassination program in the history of the United States and perhaps in the history of the world.

One should not make too much of these parallels, because the problems of Iraq are only loosely related to the problems we faced in Vietnam. My concern is that these tactics might eventually undermine American strategic goals of a stable, relatively democratic and sustainable Iraq. If American forces are required to use very aggressive tactics over an extended period, they may succeed in crushing the insurgency but make the long-term goals impossible.

If Saddam's capture is the first fruit of these new aggressive tactics and we see reduced insurgent effectiveness over the next few months, American forces may be able to avoid the worst-case scenarios for the future. We may be able to create the physical and social conditions permitting more rapid Iraqi recovery and successful self- rule. We may be able to step back from what was becoming a dangerous tactical escalation and turn to support of Iraqi policing. This would be lucky for the American troops and especially lucky for the Iraqi people.

Joel Diemond teaches government at Dutchess Community College in Poughkeepsie.