_{Opening Questions posed by Jerry Leach, President of WACA:}

1. _{Is  China already driving the world economy?}
2. _{Is China democratizing?}
3. _{Will India become the math and engineering power house of the world?}
4. _{Will the U.S. high technology productivity be affected by our lower levels of science/math/engineering? How will we handle this?}
5. _{Will China and India push up oil prices more rapidly?}
6. _{Will Russia again become an authoritarian power? A nuclear player?}
7. _{Will Brazil dominate Latin America?}
8. _{Will Brazil, India, and China overcome poverty in their quest for big power status?}

_{"The Rise of China" by Dr. Roderick MacFarquhar, Professor of Government, Harvard University.}

_{China is now the world’s third largest trading economy behind the United States and Germany with a 10 percent annual growth rate. In 75 years, Dr. MacFarquhar predicts, China will be the largest economy in the world.}

_{This rapid rise in China’s trade, exports, manufacturing capacity, infrastructure building and increasing privatization has resulted in positives like a better standard of living for those in the coastal cities and negatives like environmental damage, corruption, and a widening gap between the rich and poor.}

_{Why did it take China so long to develop?}

_{China was a great civilization for 2000 years, so it took them a long time to realize that that civilization is no longer viable vis-à-vis the West. Throughout its history, China has moved forward because of shocks to its system, e.g. Sino-Japanese War, the Opium War, 1911 Revolution, 1949 victory of Mao Tse-Tung and the arrival of Communism, the failure of the Great Leap Forward, Nixon’s visit and the fall of Communism in the Soviet Union.}

_{China now wants the respect of the outside world, especially of the United States, but is in search of a new identity to replace Marxism-Leninism. It is searching for a way to get from a Communist Party dictatorship that no longer commands respect or authority to democratization. But most people value stability over democracy, as long as there is economic prosperity. It is not possible, Dr. MacFarquar said, to run a huge complex country from a central system; local control and expression is needed. The Chinese system is a "sand castle" that can last a long time until there’s a big wave.}

_{What will that wave be? Taiwan? North Korea’s nuclear threat? China does not want an independent Taiwan or for North Korea to collapse or become a nuclear power.}

_{At a Chinese Embassy reception that evening, Ambassador Zhou Wenzhang sidestepped most of the questions: China is trying to stop piracy with more "meaningful" enforcement of the laws, they want peace with the entire Korean peninsula, and they hope for a better balance of student exchanges (currently 60,000 Chinese students are in the U.S. with 3,000 Americans studying in China).}

_{Lunch with the Hungarian Ambassador Andras Simonyi.}

_{Ambassador Simonyi has a background in politics, the military and as a businessman in a telecommunications company. He also plays in a rock band called the "Coalition of the Willing"! He worked for 9 years to get Hungary into NATO and the European Union.}

_{He described the last 15 years in Hungary as a "miracle". The economy went from 90% state ownership of all industry, agriculture and production to 5% today in a market economy. The government went from a communist system to a democracy. Non-existent industries have emerged (automobiles, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, information technology, etc). Hungary is sorry it was stuck behind the Iron Curtain for 50 years!}

_{Transatlantic relations are the "cornerstone" of Hungarian development. There is no alternative. NATO is the institution of choice for the security of democracy, although NATO is not yet ready for this responsibility. We should all fix NATO, not go around it. Its problem is one of command and control, not technology or equipment.}

_{The European Union is seen as an institution to recreate Europe to be more competitive in the face of new challenges, but it will never replace transatlantic relationships. He supports the entry of Turkey and the Ukraine into the EU. Hungary has been supportive of the United States in Afghanistan and Iraq; public opinion against the U.S. invasion hasn’t been as vocal in Hungary as in the rest of Europe. Bush’s acceptance of the McCain resolution against torture helped the US image. The US and Europe are "one family".}

_{The Ambassador believes in the "soft power" of culture, diplomacy, and trade as more effective than military might in international relations. Germany and France have to realize economic threats are from India and China, not Eastern Europe. He is encouraged with German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s election. The situation in Belarus is a "disgrace" and "can’t continue". The U.S. should work with Russia to fix the problem of Iran.}

_{"Where is Putin’s Russia Going?" by Jack Matlock, former Ambassador to the Soviet Union (1987-91), several African countries, and now lecturer in Public and International Affairs at Princeton University. Author of Reagan and Gorbachev: How the Cold War Ended.}

_{The collapse of the Soviet Union was neither predicted nor anticipated. Since then, there are a number of troubling signs in Russia: the gas to Ukraine issue, the Yukos scandal and subsequent renationalization of much industry; the gradual reining in of the media, especially television by the Kremlin, constitutional changes to allow the President to name state governors and abolition of election districts for the Duma, interference in the elections in Ukraine and Georgia, growth of corruption, increased centralized power of Putin and the Kremlin, and the handling of Chechnya. If current trends continue, Russia will move toward an illiberal autocracy. The population is declining; public health and education are in bad shape.}

_{However, there is some good news. The economy and the standard of living are steadily improving, as is the quality of goods produced. Russia has a positive balance of payments, low debt and stable currency. The people have a feeling of stability and give Putin a 70 percent approval rating for bringing order out of the anarchy of the 1990s. People didn’t like some of the excesses in the media in terms of language and content, so don’t mind increased censorship.}

_{The Cold War ended by mutual consent, the effort started by Reagan and Gorbachev. Matlock calls it a "mutual victory over the insanity of the nuclear arms race." Gorbachev then took the Communist Party out of power because there was no more Cold War to hold the country together. The Soviet Union is undergoing three revolutions: turning from totalitarianism to democracy, from a state owned economy to one that is market based, and the break up of the Soviet empire with fewer than half of its previous population. It takes two generations to transform a society, Matlock said. The unifying powers holding the society together are history, language, culture and feeling of community.}

_{Russia’s security interests are virtually identical to the United States: anti-terrorism, nuclear proliferation, environmental issues, the rise of China and India. The two countries also share economic interests: energy, trade.}

_{"We need Russia more than they need us".}

_{Anne Garrels, foreign correspondent for Nation Public Radio, received WACA’s Distinguished International Journalism award at the Rising Powers banquet.}

_{Most of Ms Garrels’ career was in the Soviet Union and its successor states, but for the past three and half years, she has been reporting from Iraq for NPR. She wrote about these experiences in Naked in Baghdad. She’s also been a correspondent for NBC News in the State Department and ABC in Central America.}

_{She described the impossible working conditions in Baghdad today. Reporters can no longer roam the streets or markets to talk with everyday Iraqis because of the insurgent threats. She lives in the Red Zone and tries to keep a low profile while moving around in her armored car with a driver and translator.}

_{Ms Garrels said the United States was woefully unprepared for the Iraqi Occupation and did not understand the culture or the enemy. Iraqi society is crumbling with nothing to take its place. Political parties are fragile; people are terrified. She doesn’t know who the insurgents are, since she can never get near them.}

_{She is driven to return to Iraq to tell Americans what she can of the country, but doesn’t know how long she can stand the tension and fear. She gave the audience a glimpse of what goes on behind the news and the courage of the reporters in Iraq.}

World Affairs Council of the Mid-Hudson Valley, Inc.