_{Mr. Flavin is actively engaged in international climate change and energy policy discussions. He is founding member of the Business Council for Sustainable Energy and a member of the National Academy of Sciences Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, the Climate Institute, and the Environmental and Energy Study Institute. He is a cum laude graduate of Williams College, where he studied economics, biology, and environmental studies.}

_{Worldwatch Institute was founded in 1974. Its aim is to be a leading source of information on the interactions among key environmental, social, and economic trends. Its work involves how to successfully achieve the transition to an environmentally sustainable and socially just society.}

_{He discussed how the major powers, particularly China, India and the US are consuming energy and other resources at an unsustainable rate. He pointed out that China last year used 25% of the world’s steel, 47% of cement and 32% of rice. He offered the following statistics:}

_{China and India represent about 40% of the world’s population; the US about 4.5%. These countries also consume large amounts of coal and oil with the US being the largest consumer, by far, of oil: 20.5 million barrels /day vs. 6.7 for china and 2.6 for India (see next table).}

_{India’s consumption of oil has doubled since 1992 (to 2.6 million barrels/day) while China’s has doubled since 1994 (to 6.7 million barrels/day). There does not appear to be a worldwide capability to produce oil at these increasing rates of demand. A different type of energy system is needed.}

_{It will not be possible, given the anticipated growth of China and India, to have an effective and efficient global economy using current energy sources. Another major concern is the impact of carbon emissions is on air quality and global warming.}

_{There are similar concerns regarding the consumption of resources such as water, agricultural and forest products. In addition, the level of industrial activity driven by coal and oil are creating heightened worries about carbon emissions.}

_{In 2004, more than seven billion tons of carbon were released into the atmosphere from industrial activities worldwide. China is the world’s second largest emitter, after the US (see table), releasing 1.0 billion tons of carbon while India is fourth with .3 billion.}

_{China currently uses 1/15 as much oil per person as the US, while India uses about 1/30 as much. If China and India reach even half of US consumption, they alone will be using 100 million barrels per day. In 2005, total global consumption was 85 million barrels per day. With such a growth trend, worldwide consumption will be upwards of 200 million barrels a day. This rate does not appear sustainable given current projections of oil reserves.}

_{China, India and the US, along with other countries must work toward new methods to live within the constraints of nature. Four steps are recommended:}

_{The global community must welcome China and India as being global players. Examples include inviting them to G-8 meetings (Since 1975, the governments of 8 industrial democracies meet annually on major economic and political issues facing their domestic societies and the international community -France, US, Britain, Germany, Japan, Italy, Canada and Russia), make China a member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and give India a seat on the United Nations Security Council.}

_{China, India and the US must act collectively to ensure energy supplies for all as they move away from fossil fuels. A "grand bargain" is needed by the global community to commit to energy efficiency investments and development and financing of renewable energy technologies while reducing world oil use and carbon emissions.}

_{A commitment by the global community to develop a new model for agriculture. The goal is to create environmentally sustainable farms, modest in size with low energy and chemical inputs, reliance on perennial plants and ecological crop rotations and an integration of biofuels into the mix of agricultural products.}

_{Plans in countries around the world to help their citizens understand better the people and cultures of China and India. Expansion of cultural exchanges and attendance by western students in Chinese and Indian Universities are possibilities.}

_{Q: Comment on the US concern that China and India are not part of the Kyoto Protocol.}

_{A: China and India not included because of the lower per capita emissions. Does not believe they should be faced with a 7% reduction which is not politically achievable. However, they must begin to act to limit emissions as their economies grow. Hopes they will use new technology (Example: Solar water heating) to "leap frog" current technologies}

_{Q: How is China handling the degradation of its lands because of over-farming?}

_{A: Trying to resolve by bringing new, more technology oriented people into government to employ new methods. They have made progress with reforestation in northern China.}

_{Q: What knowledge does the general population in China have regarding pollution?}

_{A: It’s limited. Local governments cover-up accidents, but awareness is increasing particularly when a spill in one province crosses political lines into another province.}

World Affairs Council of the Mid-Hudson Valley, Inc.