_{Dr. Kenneth Deffeyes, a world authority on oil supplies, was head researcher for Shell Oil. He brought his vast experience to the Princeton academic community. He is author of "Beyond Oil: The View from Hubberts’ Peak"}

_{Oil peaked in the US in 1970. In 1956, M. King Hubbert predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970's. Although Hubbert was widely criticized by some oil experts and economists, in 1971 Hubbert's prediction came true. The 100 year period when most of the world's oil was being discovered became known as "Hubbert's Peak". The peak stands in contrast to the hundreds of millions of years the oil deposits took to form. Hubbert's methods predict a peak in world oil production less than five years away.}

_{Deyffeyes believes the world oil supply has now peaked. In March, 2003, Saudis say their supply has peaked. In November, 2005 Kuwait announces a major field has maxed out. The US Geological Survey says there are 3 trillion barrels of oil reserves. Other analyses project only 2 trillion. The Chevron Company is using 2 barrels of oil to find 1 barrel.}

_{Until recently, the oil industry enjoyed a higher rate of return on invested capital than any other industry. Historically, the most rewarding use of the profit was investing it into developing better ways of finding oil. As a result, the origin, trapping, exploration, and production of oil became advanced fields of knowledge. We cannot benefit today from reinventing those wheels.}

_{There are long-term solutions to our future energy problems: conservation and both fossil and renewable energy sources. Unfortunately, large-scale implementation of these solutions requires more than five years and the industrialized nations have done little to address the short-term problem.}

_{The present chaos in energy prices may, in fact, be the leading edge of an even more serious crisis. We all have to place our bets; doing nothing is equivalent to betting against Hubbert.}

_{Oil will not just "run out" because all oil production follows a bell curve. This is true whether we're talking about an individual field, a country, or on the planet as a whole.} 

_{Oil is increasingly plentiful on the upslope of the bell curve, increasingly scarce and expensive on the down slope. The peak of the curve coincides with the point at which the endowment of oil has been 50 percent depleted. Once the peak is passed, oil production begins to go down while cost begins to go up.}

_{In practical and considerably oversimplified terms, this means that if 2000 was the year of global Peak Oil, worldwide oil production in the year 2020 will be the same as it was in 1980. However, the world’s population in 2020 will be both much larger (approximately twice) and much more industrialized (oil-dependent) than it was in 1980. Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production of oil by a significant margin. As a result, the price will skyrocket, oil-dependant economies will crumble, and resource wars will explode.}

_{We will see wild swings in the price of oil and gas as supplies shrink. Agriculture, automotive and aviation industries will be hard hit. Agriculture is a big energy user especially in the use of pesticides. The automotive world is almost entirely dependent on oil and there are no substitutes for jet fuel on the horizon.}

_{Rationing is inevitable.}

_{What can be done?}

_{Immediate: A 55 mph speed limit (they’ll hate me in Montana), teach the kids to turn out the lights when they leave a room, open the house windows for cooling or heating when the weather is not extreme.}

_{Engineered: Nuclear power, high-efficiency diesel automobiles, wind turbines, coal gasification (with the carbon dioxide sold for enhancing oil recovery).}

_{Dreams: Hydrogen fuel cells, alcohol from corn, solar cells. Don’t pin your hopes on a Manhattan Project or an Apollo program.}

_{Coal gasification is a major possibility. Can create gasoline. Ethanol from cellulose is another possibility. There is an enzyme that acts on the cellulose to create ethanol.}

_{The agricultural system must be reinvented. It is a very high user of energy to create pesticides and fertilizers and to move products to market. Some suggestions are changing crop types to those that can be stored for long periods (carrots, potatoes, etc.) and increasing the use of locally grown products.}

_{Possible outcomes include a hard landing in which we face war and pestilence. It may be possible to have a soft landing, however, we may have missed the window to develop new technologies and there appears to be little political leadership to date.}

_{Chaos will likely be triggered by a major event such as weather, collapse of the dollar, other economic problems, closure of key sea lanes that are used to transport oil, etc.}

_{Q: Is Russia a potential for additional oil supply?}

_{A: There are serious infrastructure problems. Some have been fixed, but there have been no major discoveries to date.}

_{Q: What about the increased projections of Middle East oil?}

_{A: We don’t know if the projections are valid; there is no outside check.}

_{Q: Are speculators in charge of the oil process?}

_{A: Don’t know.}

_{Q: What about solar energy?}

_{A: Too expensive. It’s subsidized today. There is a low return for the amount of investment.}

_{Q: Can gasification create enough energy for the foreseeable future?}

_{A: Yes, there is a lot of low sulpher coal in Montana, Tennessee, Kentucky and Pennsylvania.}

_{Q: What role will the Taliban play in oil distribution from the Middle East to China?}

_{A: Afghanistan is a major land mass between the Middle East and China; this may be why the US is there.}

_{Q: Will satellites be an option for solar power?}

_{A: Too iffy; not a credible alternative.}

_{Q: What are the ramifications on oil prices as India and China compete for this commodity?}

_{A: Will be a concern to the US even though economists say that because the US is more of a service economy it will have a lesser impact.}

World Affairs Council of the Mid-Hudson Valley, Inc.