_{In Dr. Woolner's view, Putin is not a reformer.  Putin wants to retain the power of an autocrat who can act immediately and vigorously.  Putin's two major goals are to restore the power of the Russian state and to lure foreign investment.  There is tremendous wealth and tremendous poverty in Russia today.  Bribery is a way of life.  However, Dr. Woolner believes that the people like Putin.  They are not focused on democracy but on bread and butter issues.  The speaker surmised that Gorbachev was despised, Yeltsin was disliked, but in the last 1 1/2 years life has improved.  The arms industry is on the rebound.  The Russian army is becoming a more effective fighting force, yet Putin understands the necessity of not alienating the West.  There seems to be considerable opportunity for the Russian-American relationship to develop in positive ways.}

_{Dr. Jon. B. Alterman}

_{“Is the Worst Over? The Future of the Middle East.”}

_{Lecture on April 20, 2004  at 5:30 P.M. in the Villard Room at Vassar College, Poughkeepsie, N.Y.}   

_{Lecture Summary}

            _{Unrest in the Middle East may not worsen, but conflict in the area is unlikely to go away in the near future, according to a lecture by Dr. Jon B. Alterman to the World Affairs Council. Alterman’s talk in the Villard Room at Vassar College drew an audience of approximately 300. He presented both a focused analysis of the current situation in Iraq and the surrounding states, as well as a description of broader trends underway in the Middle East irrespective of events in Iraq.}  

            _{According to Alterman, Iraq’s neighbors fear instability in the country—both in positive and negative directions. Neighboring states of Iraq are concerned that Iraq could turn into an Afghanistan, an unstable wilderness where their enemies can train & plot against them.  On the other hand, a strong democratic Iraq that is a regional powerhouse and that inspires neighboring populations to overthrow their governments is not in the interests of neighboring states, either. What they prefer most is something in between, Alterman said, something like a "slow boil" rather than complete success or failure.} 

            _{On the popular level, there is incredulity that the U.S. cannot do a better job on Iraqi reconstruction, and a suspicion that the U.S. is less than successful because it wants to be. After all, the U.S. military defeated a strong and repressive regime in a matter of weeks; how can it fail to carry out the mundane tasks of governance as well as the regime did?} 

            _{Dr. Alterman then discussed four kinds of changes underway in the Middle East that are completely unconnected to the war in Iraq. First, media & technology has transformed the way information is disseminated & digested.  Traditionally, the government bureaucracy controlled information.  Today, satellite television, video cassette players & tapes, & the photocopier are accessible to millions.  It's a buyer's market. The size of one’s audience is no longer determined by who sits where in an information ministry in the Arab world, but by how much appeal an audience finds in one’s message. Censorship is much harder to do, and it is harder for governments to gain publics’ attention through the mass media.}  

            _{Second, there are demographic factors.  While most analysts point to high numbers of the population under the age of 18, Alterman said the important number was that 25-30% of the population in most Arab countries are young adults 15-30, many of whom are not integrated into their society.  They are jobless, alienated, and without responsibilities.  They can't afford to get married.  What is their stake in the status quo?}

            _{Then Dr. Alterman reminded the audience of the age of many key leaders in the region.  The president of the most populous Arab state, Egypt, is 76.  The leader of the Palestinians is 74.  The heads of the Saudi royal family are in their 80's.  Succession is not clear.}   

            _{The last environmental change mentioned is geopolitical.   The Cold War is over, and Arabs are debating where the international fault lines run and where they should align themselves. Now there is internal debate on what it means to be an Arab. How much is one's identity tied to Islam?   Who defines Islam?  What is our future?  People are hearing different messages & they determine what is authentic, what is appealing.  The ferment is there & it is not centralized.} 

            _{All of this is in addition to the persistence of long-running conflicts in the Middle East, among them the Arab-Israeli conflict. The violence of the last 3-1/2 years and subsequent hardened in attitude among Israelis and Palestinians makes a solution in the near term extremely unlikely.}

    _{Alterman cautioned that there is no easy way out of the current dilemmas. America needs to embrace Arab reform without smothering it, and it needs to nurture the emergence of an indigenous Iraqi leadership far more successfully than it has been able to do thus far. The Iraqis desperately want peace & security but they have to feel the winners will be around a long time before they risk their support & their lives.  In the short term, Dr. Alterman thinks things will get worse before they get better.  American troops will probably be needed for 3 - 5 years, serving in a hostile environment.  Eventually a strong central government may emerge, resembling somewhat the previous government.}

             _{Alterman also suggested that the U.S. needs to work with Europe to reach different groups in different ways.  The governments there are facing new challenges & could be attracted to an alternative vision.  We must think of new ways to bring about change.  The problem, however, is comparable to trying to change an engine while the car is still running.}

_{Eileen Heaphy, Exec. Dir., World Affairs Council, Stamford, CT.}

_{“Mexico – So Far from God, So Close to the United States”}

_{Meeting on March 8, 2004 at the 96 Main Restaurant and Bar in Poughkeepsie, N.Y.}  

_{2003 Inaugural Event}  

    _{As an inaugural lecturer, the Hon. Benjamin Gilman, a member of Congress from 1973 to 2003, and former chairman of the House International Relations Committee, will speak on a topic much in the news, "U.S. Relations with the United Nations--as seen from Congress." His talk is scheduled for Dec.5. 2003 at 7 p.m. at the new Henry A. Wallace Visitor Center, at the FDR Presidential Library and Museum in Hyde Park. For information about membership and about this event, and others, contact Martin Charwat, president of the Mid-Hudson World Affairs Council, at 845-546-2118 or e-mail charwat@attglobal.net The public, including high-school students, their teachers, college students, families, businesses, and non-profit organizations, is urged to attend the December event.} 

_{Summary of December 5, 2003 Event} 

            _{The scheduled speaker, the Hon. Benjamin Gilman, was unable to attend due to weather conditions.  In his absence, a panel addressed the announced topic “U.S. Relations with the United Nations as Seen from Congress.”} 

            _{Joel Diemond, Professor of Political Science at Dutchess Community College, provided a framework for the discussion by describing the realist and idealist approaches in American foreign policy. A realist explains international politics as the pursuit of national security and self-interest in an anarchic world through gaining and wielding power.  The idealist approach emphasizes international law and international organizations over military force alone.  Idealists also believe that all human beings, regardless of their political affiliation, can belong to a single community with universal human rights. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, as a key architect of the United Nations, blended both approaches: United States membership in the United Nations was intended both to advance universal values and to promote American self-interest.} 

            _{Professor Diemond noted that U.S. public is ill informed about the work of the United Nations system.  As a result, some members of Congress level short-term self-serving attacks on the organization.  The speaker deplored this practice and noted that if the United Nations did not exist, it would have to be invented. The U.N. probably prevented World War III during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1963 when the U.N. helped to defuse the crisis by providing channels for behind-the-scenes communication.}  

            _{Stephen Rock, Professor of Political Science at Vassar College, described American public ambivalence regarding the United Nations.  Although public opinion polls show widespread support for the ideal of international cooperation through the United Nations, there is also much mistrust or antipathy.} 

            _{Several factors contribute to these attitudes.  First, there is a long history of U.S. official and public distrust of international organizations.  This distrust is evident in the Charter provision giving the United States and the Security Council’s other four permanent members, the power to veto Council resolutions and thereby block Council action.  Second, Americans generally harbor three misconceptions about the United Nations: (1) it is ineffective; (2) it is too expensive; and (3) it is Anti-American. To counter these misconceptions, Professor Rock cited the work of the United Nations in Korean and the 1991 Gulf War as examples of collective action under U.N. auspices, figures showing that the U.N. budget is less than state and city budgets, and illustrations showing that the U.N. often advances U.S. priorities and interests.} 

            _{Martin Charwat, the President of the World Affairs Council of the Mid-Hudson Valley and a former U.S. Foreign Service officer, traced the history of congressional attitudes toward the United Nations.  He described how President Roosevelt “romanced” Congress by including members of both parties and the former isolationist Senator Vandenberg in the U.S. delegation to the Charter conference in 1945.  Congressional attitudes have generally mirrored the perceived level of U.S. influence in the United Nations, with broad support in the 1950’s and a subsequent decline.  Mr. Charwat pointed out that members of Congress often lack a full, informed view of the United Nations system or international issues.  For example, Congress hesitated to “call a spade a spade” in the face of genocide in Cambodia and Rwanda.} 

            _{James Olson, a former Vice President of the United Nations Association of the USA, noted the appropriateness of having the first meeting of the World Affairs Council at the FDR library.  He recalled that Mrs. Roosevelt also playing an important role in the early years of the United Nations, serving, for example, as the Chair of the U.N. Commission on Human Rights that drafted the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.} 

            _{He noted that while 75% of the public claim to support the United Nations, they know very little in general.  They do not know about the accomplishments of the United Nations in setting international norms, negotiating treaties, providing a voice for traditionally “voiceless” groups (for example, women, children, the disabled); the work of the U.N. agencies in the areas of health, education, and economic development; or even the work of the U.N. in the great issues of war and peace.  He recommended that audience members keep informed through the Websites of the United Nations (www.un.org) and the United Nations Foundation (www.unfoundation.org).}